MyDD :: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq?

Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq?

by rayj, Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:38:35 AM EST

According to the Politico's Jon Martin (quoting Bill Kristol and George Packer), the answer is...yes.

The next, and perhaps most significant, Obama move to the middle could be on the issue which initially sparked his campaign: Iraq.

Observers from the Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol to George Packer, the New Yorker writer and author of "The Assassins Gate" can already see it coming:

Said Kristol yesterday on Fox News Sunday:

The next big flip for Obama, and this will make Brit even more astonished, will be on Iraq. He's going to go to Iraq, meet with General Petraeus, decide the surge is working and walk back from his immediate unconditioned withdrawal. And suddenly, it's going to be, "Well, we're going to be very careful, gradual." "Honorable withdrawal," Obama said the other day -- an honorable conclusion to the Iraq war.

And Packer in this week's New Yorker:

Obama, whatever the idealistic yearnings of his admirers, has turned out to be a cold-eyed, shrewd politician. The same pragmatism that prompted him last month to forgo public financing of his campaign will surely lead him, if he becomes President, to recalibrate his stance on Iraq. He doubtless realizes that his original plan, if implemented now, could revive the badly wounded Al Qaeda in Iraq, reënergize the Sunni insurgency, embolden Moqtada al-Sadr to recoup his militia's recent losses to the Iraqi Army, and return the central government to a state of collapse. The question is whether Obama will publicly change course before November. So far, he has offered nothing more concrete than this: "We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in."

Obama's advisers have been more forthcoming. Samantha Power, before she resigned from the campaign for making an indiscreet remark about Hillary Clinton, told the BBC, "He will, of course, not rely upon some plan that he's crafted as a Presidential candidate or a U.S. senator. He will rely upon a plan--an operational plan--that he pulls together in consultation with people who are on the ground."

Tags: Barack Obama, Iraq (all tags)

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Said Kristol yesterday on Fox News Sunday... (2.00 / 1)

Enough said.

I attended PUMACon '08!!!

by iohs2008 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:43:01 AM EST

I wouldn't be surprised (2.00 / 2)

at the present rate anything is possible

by tarheel74 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:43:14 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

There are so many vagueries in Kristol's statement that I fail to see how he can predict a "flip" here. If the initial timetable was changed, or the timetable ceased to exist, then there would be something about which to debate. At this point, though, it looks like a bunch of conservative journalists trying to wring all they can out of the "flip-flop" meme.

by rfahey22 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:44:56 AM EST

Yes when Obama does it is not a flip (none / 0)

It should be called a policy adjustment. LOL

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:48:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes when Obama does it is not a flip (2.00 / 0)

I'm sure you can elaborate on the specifics of the hypothetical flip - surely calling withdrawal an "honorable withdrawal" or a "gradual withdrawal" is not a "flip" if it doesn't affect the underlying timetable. Unless you're just into arguing semantics.

by rfahey22 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:51:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He is just setting us upto change timetable. (2.00 / 1)

He is my senator and I am quite used to his change of positions.

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:54:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He is just setting us upto change timetable. (none / 0)

Of course Obushma will flip on Iraq, and he's flipped on NAFTA, FISA, etc etc and so on.

I'm LMAO

If you want Unity, nominate a Democrat

by rankles on Wed Jul 02, 2008 at 02:45:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I told you so! (none / 0)

That won't be news to me.

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:46:49 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

I've was betting Obama would change his Iraq position for the general long ago. He carefully avoided taking the unequivocal withdrawal positions of John Edwards or Hillary Clinton, so I always figured he would discover a reason to prolong the occupation. I half-expect him to put it in terms of helping the Iraqi government stabilize so that they can begin producing oil and reduce gas prices.

Having said that the Packer piece reads to me as wishful thinking on his part. Packer supported invasion, though he has become a fierce critic, and he reads as looking for some vindication from Obama. The Powers quote is more convincing.

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 10:49:55 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 0)

This is just false. Obama has committed to a complete withdrawal from Iraq by the end of his first term. Clinton was the who wouldn't go the distance (if you don't believe me just google stories on this topic from last fall).

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:13:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

within 16 months (none / 0)

His current commitment is to within a year and four months:

Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.

Sometimes he says by the end of 2009. But he conditions all of that on a lack of political progress. If he sees what he considers political progress I think he will change his plan.

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:32:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 3)

Citing Kristol as a source is idiotic. Why not cite Paul Wolfowitz? I'm sure he has many "special" insights into Obama.

Those who backed Clinton in the primaries need to give it up. Concern trolling on the right is a lamentable fact of life. When it comes from the left, though, and the sources they cite are on the right, that's pathetic.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:12:05 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

I suspect an adjustment to the timetable, but that was going to happen when he gets in office. He's still going to be committed to leaving. I won't consider an adjustment of the timetable a flip. On the other hand, if he signals he's willing to stay no matter what, then of course, thats a huge flip, and that would be abysmal. The fact is we're in a terrible situation in Iraq. What McCain and Bush have been saying, is that if things go bad we can't leave, and if things go well we can't leave. That's forever war. As long as Obama isn't adopting this position and is still showing he wants to leave, I'm content. An adjustement in the timetable should be expected, and would be malpractice not to consider reality.

by cycl06 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:14:15 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

The next big event in Iraq (assuming no attack by the US on Iran), clearly, will be the national elections which are scheduled for the end of 2009. Until we know what happens then it would be fundamentally irresponsible for Obama, or anyone, to commit to a specific timetable or plan which ends in a total withdrawal by mid-2010 (which, btw, is what Edwards was suggesting), because it would be folly for the US to pull out this quickly if that pushed Iraq into a civil war (ie. we'd have to go straight back in).

The key issue people should focus on, essentially, is whether the candidate believes the US should have bases in Iraq over the long-term (because that's not predicated upon any short-term political developments within Iraq). McCain clearly believes the US should have these bases. Obama, just as clearly, believes the US should not have them (ie. full withdrawal). Kristol, clearly, is someone who supports McCain's position (and what's coming from Neocons right now is desperation, they have a sense that if Obama wins even if Iraq becomes stable the US, in their view, might forfeit what they believed was the main benefit from going to war in the first place).

Although we'll never know what Clinton would have done if she'd become president, any fair reckoning of her record should note two things: Bill Clinton basically faced the question of whether the US should withdraw from Saudi Arabia after Gulf War I, and opted to keep permanent bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia for strategic reasons (the US is no longer in Saudi due to 9/11 and Gulf War II, but that was clearly his intent); Hillary Clinton does believe that its in the US national interest to have a strong strategic position in the Middle East (and was careful not to spell out what she envisioned as her endgame).

Obama has spelled out his intended endgame: no permanent bases in Iraq, period, and this withdrawal should be completed by the end of his first term. He's given no hint in recent weeks that he's changed his views on this. So what's motivating this diary? The diarist, obviously, is a Dem who doesn't like Obama. That's all.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:36:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

Hillary Clinton was unequivocally opposed to permanent bases in Iraq.

Your own post illustrates Obama's shifting Iraq position. Obama's web site says "Obama has a plan to immediately begin withdrawing our troops engaged in combat operations at a pace of one or two brigades every month, to be completed by the end of next year." You say it would be fundamentally irresponsible for Obama to completely withdraw by 2009, next year.

Given the rumors from named Obama advisors that Obama is considering retaining Gates as Defense Secretary, Obama's specific defense of Petraeus in his speech yesterday, and the points you site, I think Obama will change his Iraq withdrawal position.

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:53:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

Plans are fluid because realities change.

The Iraq of 2006 is not the Iraq of 2008. I'm not passing judgment on any particular changes in policy at this time, but only a fool or an idiot plods on with the same plan when the circumstances change significantly.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:58:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

I agree to a large extent. But it will be funny to see many commenters in left blogistan, who supported Obama over Clinton because they claimed he wouldn't pivot on Iraq, pivot on Iraq with him. And funnier still to see the self-described "high-info" voters who love to describe Hillary Clinton as a bloodthirsty warmonger react to their champion's pragmatic shifts.

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

What do you mean by "change his position"? If you mean the timetable will change, I agree with you.

by cycl06 on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:12:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

I mean he will change his position from the 2009 complete withdrawal deadline he mentions on his website.

I spent a lot of time during the primaries arguing with people who believed that Obama's withdrawal position was firm. And I have to say that his campaign did a lot to give them that impression. But a careful reading of Obama's statements and history convinced me that he would be much more pragmatic than their impression suggested.

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:26:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

I'm not suggesting that Clinton endorsed McCain's "West Germany" approach to Iraq, but her position was more ambiguous than you're suggesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/15/washin gton/15clinton.html?ex=1331611200&en =5fb23776ba644bc2&ei=5090&partne r=rssuserland&emc=rss

By my read, btw, what I'm guessing she had in mind were bases in Iraq which were permanent in all but name (but in Kurdistan, and by "permanent" I mean designed to last for more than ten years). And you'll note in this article she references Al Qaeda, Iran, oil, and Israel, as being matters of "vital" national importance (she wasn't just talking about terrorism, she's believed all along that the US has a big role to play in this part of the world).

To finish with the parsing, btw, what I'm guessing she meant by troops which could provide "support" was this: let's relocate substantial forces from Iraq to Kuwait and possibly Turkey (ie. let's replicate the strategic posture we had during Bill Clinton's administration). Again, not attacking this position, just trying to describe what I believe she wanted to do (and if you disagree provide your own description).

There is no inconsistency between an 18-month-long withdrawal and not completing such a withdrawal until after Iraq has had its next round of national elections (in real terms, what this suggests is that the US would either be halfway through the process when these elections occurred or would schedule most of this to occur during the later period).

This is a side topic, btw, but think Gates has been an excellent Secretary of Defense, and will be shown a few years from now to be both the person who prevented Iraq from descending into chaos and stopped the US from attacking Iran (and that's where these rumors are coming from, Dems who have some deeper knowledge of this story are toying with the idea that perhaps his views about the big picture aren't really incompatible, though I'm not expecting that anything like this will happen).

Similar deal with Obama's comment about Petraeus--he attacked Move On for flinging dirt at him when he's someone in the career military who seems to have done a good job (someone who is running for the presidency should defend the career military as an institution, period, since he's aiming to lead it).

On the need for a complete withdrawal within the next couple of years, though, Obama has been firm (and if you parse the statements of others in the region, btw, eg. Olmert, they seem to think he's serious).

Such a withdrawal can only happen, though, if the situation in Iraq stable enough so that any US departure wouldn't lead to some big war (and that's where the "let's depart at any price" folk were always a bit silly, obviously the US has to get the endgame right or a fast withdrawal soon would lead to a big war later, and not decades in the future but 1-2 years).

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

This is clear to me:

To be clear, attempts to establish permanent bases in Iraq would damage U.S. interests in Iraq and the broader region, and I will continue to strongly oppose such efforts.

On your larger point I think Obama is similarly pragmatic about U.S. interests in the region. That is why it would not surprise me to see him shift from what his campaign rhetoric suggested.

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:46:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

"Given the rumors from named Obama advisors that Obama is considering retaining Gates as Defense Secretary, Obama's specific defense of Petraeus in his speech yesterday, and the points you site, I think Obama will change his Iraq withdrawal position."

Yeah, were did you see this rumors? NoQuarter?

Besides, he is considering keeping him, means he is considering replacing him? Why tell the Press and the Republic anything different?

Obama will replace him with new Sec of Defense, a Democrat. Count on it. No way he will keep Gates.

My mom believed in Jesus, the Pope and FDR..... Just not necessarily in that order.

by WashStateBlue on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

The London based Sunday Times last Sunday, quoting Danzig and Daalder, both Obama advisers. It's a rumor from a British paper, but the quotes from two advisers lends it some credibility.

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

Good article, and you were correct, this does lend some credence to the rumors.

again, I apoligize, you were correct.

My mom believed in Jesus, the Pope and FDR..... Just not necessarily in that order.

by WashStateBlue on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

She also helped start the war, so what's your point?

by venician on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 02:04:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (none / 0)

"He will, of course, not rely upon some plan that he's crafted as a Presidential candidate or a U.S. senator. He will rely upon a plan--an operational plan--that he pulls together in consultation with people who are on the ground."

Btw, how was this remark by Powers "indiscreet"? Isn't it just common sense? There's no hint of any change in policy here.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:19:10 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

Usually, while in the middle of the campaign, admitting that the plan you are campaigning on is not the plan you intend to implement is considered "indiscreet".

by souvarine on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:29:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 0)

I don't see how what Kristol is saying is anything different to what Obama has always said. Hasn't the position always been a gradual withdrawal over a period of 18 months? And the surge has worked on some levels. It is intellectually dishonest to argue otherwise.

by conspiracy on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:22:12 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 0)

er, there was never an immediate withdrawal on the books. It was always a phased withdrawal over a year (year and a half I think)

by notedgeways on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:50:55 AM EST

Um, huh? (2.00 / 0)

"We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in." is something I first heard him say in a response to the 2007 State of the Union address a year and a half ago.

by bobdoleisevil on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 11:55:22 AM EST

Re: Is Obama About to Flip on Iraq? (2.00 / 1)

BTW, I love it when supposed Democrats quote the leading NeoCon, Bill Kristol, as some kind of trusted source of info?

I guess you all believed him on Iraq in the first place?

My mom believed in Jesus, the Pope and FDR..... Just not necessarily in that order.

by WashStateBlue on Tue Jul 01, 2008 at 12:41:03 PM EST

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